Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit challenges the US but its reach is murky

TAIPEI: Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and leaders of eight other nations are set to meet in northern China for the latest summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in a possible challenge to often incoherent approaches by the United States to trade and regional conflicts.

The 10-member group that will gather Sunday and Monday in the port city of Tianjin has grown in size and influence over the past 24 years, even while its goals and programs remain murky and name recognition low. Some call it the scariest grouping you have never heard of.

The full membership includes Russia, Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Originally seen as a foil to US influence in Central Asia, the original organisation picked up four new members with the addition of India and Pakistan in 2017, Iran in 2023 and Belarus in 2024.

Some of those are clear foes of the West, especially Iran and its close Russian ally Belarus. Others, including India, China and Russia, have a more nebulous relationship, either because of Washington’s wobbly stance on Russia’s war with Ukraine or because of chaos surrounding US tariffs that have upended key trading relationships with countries such as China and India.

The SCO’s two-day summit may shed more light on issues surrounding the group’s activities and intentions.

Growing from a regional bloc to an encompassing alliance

Since its 2001 founding, the SCO primarily has been dominated by China, the regional economic superpower, with Russia seeking to use the group to maintain its influence over former Central Asian Soviet republics Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

While Russia’s economic influence has declined steadily, especially under increasingly severe Western sanctions, both Russia and China have used the alliance as a framework for regional military cooperation, albeit limited to joint drills and firing competitions.

Belarus, Iran, Pakistan and India joined later in an apparent attempt to share in the SCO’s budding influence, though the value of their membership is debatable. Iran and Belarus have faced international condemnation over sanctions and human rights violations, while Pakistan is highly dependent on China for military hardware.

India’s entry challenges the equation

India has long stuck to a self-avowed policy of neutrality, though that may be part of a strategy of self-interest.

Since the Russia-Ukraine war began, India has become a major buyer of Russian oil, increasing tensions with Washington. Modi also remarked on “steady progress” in improving relations with China after meeting its top diplomat in August and noted “respect for each other’s interests and sensitiveness.’'

India’s SCO entry potentially challenges Russian and Chinese domination over the association. Despite their trade ties, India is unlikely to offer meaningful support for Russia’s war in Ukraine or China’s claims to Taiwan and the South China Sea.

India has also long sought a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council but has received only tepid back from China and Russia, possibly to prevent their influence with the West from being diluted. Still, New Delhi stands to lose little as long as Washington continues to broadcast uncertainty with its foreign trade.

India has said it will not sign a joint statement with the SCO because it sees a pro-Pakistan stance in the omission of a mention of a deadly April 22 terror attack on tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Yet expectations have not been high for India to sign.

Little ventured and little to lose for China

Beijing has given few hints of what solid progress it expects from the summit, which is in keeping with the secretive nature of its diplomacy and politics.

The official Xinhua News Agency on Monday called the gathering the “largest-ever SCO summit in history” and said it would be used for “charting the blueprint for the bloc’s next decade of development.”

The leaders of about a dozen other countries are joining the summit as SCO dialogue partners or guests, including Egypt, Nepal and several Southeast Asian nations.

Xinhua spoke of the organisation being guided by the “Shanghai Spirit, which features mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, consultation, respect for diverse civilisations and pursuit of common development.”

Citing growing trade and rail freight between China and other members, observer states, and dialogue partners, Beijing seems eager to emphasise the bloc’s economic benefits.

Xinhua noted documents would be signed, including a notice of the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, which the ruling Communist Party will mark with a military parade in central Beijing on Sept 3.

Group showcases Xi Jinping’s multipolarity vision

University of Chicago political scientist Dali Yang said the SCO is one of the most prominent regional organisations China has cofounded.

“For China’s leadership, there is a lot of emphasis on maintaining existing relations in the international arena even though the SCO has not been effective in dealing with the major challenges of today,” Yang said.

The summit comes just days before a massive military parade through Beijing marking the 80th anniversary of Japan’s surrender at the end of WWII, attended by Xi and other leaders, including a rare showing by North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, Yang said.

The SCO seems to show a desire to move from a dialogue platform to a “full-fledged mechanism of practical cooperation that brings tangible results to the citizens of the member states,” said June Teufel Dreyer, a University of Miami expert on Chinese politics. Yet the questions remain, ”to what end and how?”

For Xi, “presiding over the gathering in Tianjin should net him some favourable publicity and possibly further his image as leader of a new global world order,” Dreyer said.

By RSS/AP