Global institutions upbeat about China's economic resilience, growth potential

BEIJING: As the year 2025 approaches its end, an increasing number of international organisations and financial institutions have successively upgraded their forecasts regarding China’s economy.

Financial heavyweight Goldman Sachs released a research report in late November in which it upgraded its prediction for China’s 2025 real GDP growth from 4.9% to 5%, and forecast even bigger increases for the next two years. The bank also said China’s real export growth is expected to rise by 5% to 6% annually over the next few years, up from a previous forecast of 2% to 3%, as Chinese goods gain global market share.

While keeping its global economic growth forecast stable at 3.2%, the Organisation for Economic Co‑operation and Development (OECD) on Tuesday revised China’s GDP forecast for 2025 from 4.9% to 5%, underlining the OECD’s view of China as a key stabiliser for global growth. The OECD noted that China’s fiscal policy has been expansionary, citing measures to support incomes and boost consumption, including a trade‑in programme for cars and household appliances.

Analysts said the upgrades reflect confidence in China’s fundamentals despite external uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions and trade frictions. They pointed to solid economic fundamentals, sufficient policy tools and structural upgrading as factors likely to sustain growth momentum.

Multiple foreign institutions voiced confidence in China’s policy toolkit. Xiong Yi, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank, said China’s intensification of fiscal policy, including a new policy‑based financial instrument worth 500 billion yuan (about $70.67 billion), is likely to provide strong support for domestic demand in both the fourth quarter and early 2026. Morgan Stanley, in its latest research report, emphasised that China’s economy will grow moderately in 2026, supported by targeted policy easing, gradual economic rebalancing and an anti‑involution campaign.

Domestic analysts echoed the optimistic outlook. Zhao Gege, chief macro analyst at Everbright Securities, said: “The synergy between the super‑large‑scale market and a strong industrial system provides ample room for growth, with a well‑stocked macro policy toolbox.” Zhang Wenlang, chief macroeconomist at China International Capital Corporation, noted that China’s foreign trade structure is improving, with technological progress reducing trade costs and stabilising export enterprises’ profit margins. Zhou Junzhi, chief macro analyst at China Securities Co, said new consumption segments are emerging as growth engines, with IP trend toys and domestic brands gaining greater market recognition and accelerating their global expansion.

Policy signals from Beijing also underpin the outlook. At a key Party plenum in October, the Communist Party of China leadership adopted recommendations for the formulation of the 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026–2030). The plan, the report said, “calls for upgrades to traditional industries such as metals, chemicals and textiles, and for growth in emerging industries like new energy,” and will receive broad‑based support from all levels of government, from logistics to financing, helping exports to grow.

Corporate investment and trade activity point to continued confidence. In September, Danfoss opened a major production base in Haiyan County, Zhejiang Province. In October, Medtronic opened its first digital healthcare innovation centre in Beijing, and in November, AP Moller‑Maersk opened its flagship logistics centre in Shanghai with an investment of more than 1 billion yuan.

Trade fairs recorded strong results: this year’s import expo in Shanghai registered $83.49 billion in one‑year intended deals, up 4.4% from the previous edition, while the 138th Canton Fair in Guangzhou attracted more than 310,000 overseas buyers and recorded on‑site intended export transactions worth $25.65 billion.

“Stable operation, solid progress in high‑quality development and inherent strengths of strong resilience and great potential — none of these fundamentals have changed,” a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics said, citing the overall performance of China’s economy.

By RSS/Xinhua