NSO projects national GDP at Rs 6.6tn; growth estimated at 3.85 pc for FY 2025/26

KATHMANDU: National Statistics Office (NSO) has released preliminary provincial gross domestic product estimates for the fiscal year 2025/26. The NSO projects national annual GDP at consumer prices to reach Rs 6.6 trillion and estimates national economic growth at 3.85%.

The NSO said Bagmati and Gandaki provinces are the only two regions expected to record growth above the national average, while the remaining five provinces are forecast to grow below the national baseline.

Bagmati remains the largest contributor to the economy, with an estimated Rs 2.423 trillion, accounting for 36.7% of the national total. Koshi follows with Rs 1.043 trillion (15.8%), and Lumbini contributes Rs 937 billion (14.2%). Madhesh is estimated at Rs 863 billion (13.1%), Gandaki at Rs 593 billion (9.0%), Sudurpashchim at Rs 464 billion (7.0%), and Karnali at Rs 277 billion (4.2%).

In annual growth terms, Bagmati recorded the highest rate at 5.40%, with Gandaki close behind at 5.01%. Madhesh registered the lowest annual growth rate at 1.31%.

Sectoral data show agriculture remains the dominant contributor across all provinces except Bagmati, where wholesale and retail trade account for the largest share of activity. At the national level, the electricity and gas sector posted the strongest annual expansion, with growth of 20.93%.

The NSO reported contractions in several areas: agricultural output in Madhesh declined year-on-year, and the public administration and defence sectors in Lumbini and Sudurpashchim recorded negative growth.

Per capita GDP for the fiscal year is estimated at $1,513 nationally. Bagmati recorded the highest per capita income at $2,644, followed by Gandaki at $1,651; these are the only two provinces above the national average. The other provinces fall below the national per capita figure: Koshi at $1,410, Lumbini at $1,208, Sudurpashchim at $1,170, Karnali at $1,108, and Madhesh at $934.

The NSO noted that these estimates are preliminary and were compiled using statistical methods based on available economic data from the first six to eight months of the fiscal year.